Guatemala Seismicity and Prevention

CHALLENGE

Guatemala has been severely affected by natural hazards including volcanic activity, hurricanes, and landslides. The worst disaster was the 1976 earth- quake that killed over 23,000 people and resulted in economic damages estimated at 17.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Over the last decades, further events caused additional human and economic losses, such as Hurricane Mitch (4.7 percent of GDP), the 2001 drought (0.1 percent), and Hurricane Stan (3.4 percent).

This high exposure to natural hazards has threat- ened the sustainability of social programs. Funding resources for social programs were repeatedly diverted to disaster response activities and the subsequent recovery process, without being replenished later. This resulted in an even worse situation for the underprivileged. 

SOLUTION

To address this challenge, the Guatemalan Government took significant steps towards a more proactive approach to disaster risk management and comprehensive disaster risk reduction and financing strategies. These efforts culminated in the adoption of the 2009-2011 National Program for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (NPDPM). 

The Guatemala Disaster Risk Management Devel- opment Policy Loan with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (CAT DDO) was designed to support the implementation of Guatemala’s national disaster risk management program and provide liquidity in the event of adverse natural events. Unlike traditional instruments to finance disaster response and recovery, the CAT DDO makes urgently needed resources available im- mediately after a declaration of emergency. This innovative mechanism allowed the Government to access $85 million to respond to the impacts. 

MOVING FORWARD

Guatemala recently developed a comprehensive National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction 2012-2017 and is positioned to start designing ex- ante Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance (DRFI) solutions. The Bank will support the Government in preparing and implementing a DRFI strategy tailored to its specific needs and capabilities. SEGEPLAN is expected to cooperate on issues related to incorporating and strengthening disaster risk management into land use plans and develop- ment plans. It will also identify legal instruments to ensure the application of disaster risk management at the municipal level and promote construction codes and standards.

Major Historic Earthquakes in Guatemala

The USGS list of historic earthquakes indicates that Guatemala has experienced at least three ≥M7.0 in recorded history: the same organisation’s map of historic seismicity, however, shows many more large-scale events. And, given the fact that earthquakes are no respecters of national boundaries, it is worth noting that the country has also been affected by large tremors occurring along the length of the subduction zone.

Seismic activity characterises such tectonically dynamic belts and in 2012 alone the Cocos subduction zone has seen a number of significant earthquakes, including two of M7.4 and M6.4 off the coast of Mexico and two of M7.4 and M7.6 off Costa Rica, the latter occurring within the previous two months. Smaller earthquakes have also abounded, as the map of seismicity for the year demonstrates.

Resources:

http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/10/08/promoting-proactive-disaster-risk-management-in-Guatemala

https://www.decodedscience.org/m7-4-earthquake-guatemala-november-7-2012/19953